Black Carbon emission from international maritime shipping is widely understimated

The report titled:

GLOBAL EMISSIONS OF MARINE BLACK CARBON: CRITICAL REVIEW AND REVISED ASSESSMENT

Haifeng Wang, Ray Minjares

The International Council on Clean Transportation Submission Date: August 1, 2012

Full document here:  http://docs.trb.org/prp/13-1503.pdf

Tells us that Black Carbon emission from international maritime shipping is widely underestimated; with actual BC figures from shipping to be up to 90% higher than prevailing estimates.

(Emphasis mine)

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4 ABSTRACT:

5 Black carbon (BC) emissions from international shipping are significant and contribute to global

6 and regional climate change, particularly in the Arctic. This paper reviews global estimates of

7 international marine BC emissions, identifies differences in inventory methods, and proposes an

8 approach for improving upon existing estimates. A critical review of the literature reveals that

9 more refined, specific marine vessel BC emission factors (EFBC) are not generally accounted for

10 in most global inventories. We find that EFBC are the single most important source of

11 differences in inventories due to poor sensitivity to ship engine type, fuel quality, and engine

12 load, and we propose a weighting framework that better encapsulates such effects. Using fuel

13 consumption estimates from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2009 GHG report

14 and updated EFBC, we estimate that shipping was responsible for about 184 thousand tonnes of

15 BC in 2007. This estimate is 42 percent higher than the current IMO estimate, but comparable to

16 recent studies informed by measured EFBC. We estimate that shipping contributed about 2,300

17 tonnes of BC in the Arctic in 2004, which is 90% higher than prevailing estimates. Our findings

18 suggest that the international marine BC contribution is widely underestimated, and that

19 improve

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“27 BC is the third largest contributor (after carbon dioxide and ozone production over the

28 oceans) to the increase in global temperature caused by international maritime emissions [14,

29 15]. Shipping also causes significant cooling via emissions of sulphate aerosols and reduction of

30 methane caused by NOx emissions. International shipping may cause particularly acute impacts

31 in the Arctic due to the presence of significant ice and snow that are sensitive to the albedo effect

32 caused by BC [5]. Ships in the Arctic frequently operate at variable speeds in response to ice

33 conditions and safety concerns, generating additional emissions under less efficient loads [16].

34 Approximately 15,000 annual voyages of all ship types travel through the Arctic, depositing

35 potentially large amounts of BC on snow and ice [17].”

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“2 CONCLUSIONS

3 This paper reviews existing literature on BC inventories from shipping, identifies key differences

4 among published estimates, explores areas of improvement, and provides refined emissions

5 estimates. We demonstrate how BC fuel consumption and EFBC are a large source of uncertainty

6 across BC inventory estimates and how the inventory estimate is sensitive to operational

7 conditions of ships. We also develop a framework for utilizing an entire set of EFBC to improve

8 upon existing estimates. Using updated global BC emissions factors, we calculate shipping BC

9 emissions of 184 kt in 2007, which is over a third higher than the most widely cited estimate. We

10 also estimate that shipping BC emissions in the Arctic were about 2,300 tonnes in 2004, 90%

11 higher than estimates in the literature.”

“35 The result also shows the potential magnitude of benefits from switching to low sulfur

36 fuel. In response to local health concerns, a number of ports have created incentives for ships to

37 voluntarily switch to low sulfur fuel. On a much larger scale, the IMO requires ships operating in

38 Emission Control Areas (ECAs) to use 0.1% sulfur fuel beginning in 2015. It also mandates that

39 international shipping outside of ECAs use 0.5% sulfur fuel from 2020, down from the current

40 average of 2.7% sulfur fuel, subject to a review in 2018. Along with these voluntary and binding

41 marine fuel requirements’ direct SOx-related health benefits, the related reduction of BC could

42 indirectly lead to additional improvements in air quality and climate.

43 The quality of the BC inventory and related decision making will be further strengthened

44 by more research on the EFBC. Unified measuring techniques and protocols will yield more

45 robust results, fill in data gaps, and facilitate improved BC inventory accuracy. More field

46 observations and experiments on the relationship between the EFBC that relate to changes in

Fuel

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1 type, engine load, and engine type would reduce uncertainties in modeling and could unify

2 differences in inventories. These efforts would lay the foundation for more reliable marine BC

3 inventory estimates and policy guidance on future emission reduction strategies.


References

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