Monday, August 12, 2013

Considering Soft Geoengineering a Woodrow Wilson Center webcast




(min. 4:45) Robert Olson
Senior Fellow, Institute for Alternative Futures
Soft Geoengineering Powerpoint pdf

(min. 23:20) Leslie Field
Consulting Professor in Electrical Engineering, Stanford University
Soft Geoengineering: Ice911

(min. 46.0) Russell Seitz
Chief Scientist, Microbubbles LLC
Soft Geoengineering: Bright Water –

(min. 1:20:15) Jim Thomas
Research Program Manager and Writer with ETC Group
“Soft” Geoengineering??
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Jim%20Thomas_Soft_geo_Powerpoint.pdf

Sunday, August 11, 2013

USGS and NOAA's wholy inadequate and incomplete descriptions for the causes of aviation contrails and their persistence



The United States Geological Survey (USGS) webpage has an interesting but wholly inadequate description for the causes of aviation contrails [1]; linked to an equally inadequate description from a NOAA page [2].

These descriptions totally ignore the role of other aircraft emission pollutants such as sulfur dioxide SO2 and soot and their cloud nucleating properties which may induce the 'persistence' of contrails and eventual formation of cirrus clouds even under generally unfavorable conditions  ie. to-low atmospheric relative humidity and or to-high temperature [3] [4] with climate change - global warming implications.

[1] Contrails: Man-made clouds

"You've seen the cloud-like trails that high-flying airplanes leave behind and you probably know they are called contrails. Maybe you didn't know they were called that because they are actually condensation trails and, in fact, are not much different than natural clouds. If the exhaust from the airplane contains water vapor, and if the air is very cold (which it often is at high altitudes), then the water vapor in the exhaust will condense out into what is essentially a cirrus cloud."


Full article:
USGS: The Water Cycle: Condensation



[2] What is a contrail and how does it form?

"To answer this question, lets first identify what a contrail is. A contrail is the condensation trail that is left behind by a passing jet plane. Contrails form when hot humid air from jet exhaust mixes with environmental air of low vapor pressure and low temperature. Vapor pressure is just a fancy term for the amount of pressure that is exerted by water vapor itself (as opposed to atmospheric, or barometric, pressure which is due to the weight of the entire atmosphere above you). The mixing occurs directly behind the plane due to the turbulence generated by the engine. If condensation (conversion from a gas to a liquid) occurs, then a contrail becomes visible. Since air temperatures at these high atmospheric levels are very cold (generally colder than -40 F), only a small amount of liquid is necessary for condensation to occur. Water is a normal byproduct of combustion in engines."

"Persistence of contrails is neither an indication that they contain some kind of chemical, nor that it is some kind of spray"

Full article:
NOAA: What is a contrail and how does it form?



[3] Effects of aircraft on aerosol abundance in the upper troposphere 
G.V.Ferry • , R.F.Pueschel •õ , A.W. Strawa • , Y.Kondo 2, S.D.Howard 3, S.Verma 4, M.J.Mahoney 5, T.P.Bui •, J.R. Hannan 6, H.E.Fuelberg 6. 

Abstract.

A significant increase in H2SO4 aerosol concentration coincidental with an enhancement in NO was detected above 10 km pressure altitude during a cross-corridor flight out of Shannon on October 23, 1997.
The source of this aerosol is ascribed to commercial aircraft operations in flight corridors above 10 km, because (1) a stable atmosphere prevented vertical air mass ex- changes and thus eliminated surface sources, (2) air mass back trajectories documented the absence of remote continental sources, and (3) temperature profiler data showed the tropopause at least one kilometer above flight altitude throughout the flight, thus excluding stratospheric sources.
Particle volatility identified (60-80)% H2SO4, •20% (NH4)2SO 4 and •10% nonvolatile aero- sol in the proximity of flight corridors, and (10-30)% H2SO4, up to 50% (NH4)2S04, and (40-60)% nonvolatile aerosols in air that was not affected by aircraft operations below 10 km.
The newly formed H2SO 4 particles did not measurably affect surface area and volume of the background aerosol due to their small size, hence did not influence radiative transfer directly. 

Introduction 

Aircraft jet engines directly emit aerosols and condensable gases, such as water vapor (H20) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) which lead to the formation of new liquid (volatile) sulfuric acid (H2SO4), particles in the early plume by gas-to-particle conver- sion (nucleation) processes.
Soot aerosol formed during incom- plete fuel combustion constitutes part of the nonvolatile particle fraction.
The newly formed particles grow by condensation and coagulation amongsthemselves and with the background aero- sol. 

Aviation-produced particles may influence the state of the atmosphere in various ways.
For example, they provide surfaces for heterogeneous chemical reactions. Heterogeneous reaction rates depend on the chemical characteristics of aerosols.
For ex- ample, the reaction probabilities of N205 on NH4HSO4, formed by reaction of H2SO4 from aircraft with ammonia in background air, show a strong dependence on relative humidity and tempera- ture, decreasing with lowering relative humidity and increasing temperature (Mozurkewich and Calvert, 1988).
In contrast, meas- urements of N205 hydrolysis on H2SO4 particles show only a weak dependence on temperature and relative humidity (Hanso and Ravishankara, 1991).
Therefore, it is important to determine the enhancement of H2804 aerosol by aircraft in relation to the fraction of those particles that are neutralized to (NH4)2SO 4 in or- der to assess the atmospheric chemical modification potential of aircraft-produced aerosol.
Aviation-generated aerosols also form a sink for condensable gases, they absorb or scatter radiation di- rectly, and they change cloud properties which may affect radia- tion indirectly. In order to assess those effects, aviation-produced aerosol characteristics have to be determined in relation to back- ground aerosol properties.

Model calculations of aircraft emissions indicate that (6-10)% of SO2 is oxidized to SO3 and subsequently to H2SO 4 to form new small aerosols (Miake-Lye, 1994; Karcher, 1996; Brown et al., 1996, 1997). Measurements in aircraft wakes, on the other hand, have shown that up to 37% of SO2 can be oxidized to H2804 aerosols (Fahey et al., 1995a,b; Miake-Lye et al., 1998; Pueschel et al., 1998; Anderson et al., 1998; Paladino et al., 1998).
These measurements have also shown that the number density of volatile particles in aircraft wakes is proportional to the S-content of the fuel burned, implying that condensable S compounds are responsible for the formation of aerosol in aircraft wakes. 

In this paper we show that increases in H2SO 4 aerosol are also detectable in the vicinity of commercial aircraft flight corridors away from dedicated aircraft plumes.
The measurements were made during the Subsonic Assessment-Ozone and Nitrogen Ox- ide Experiment (SONEX). A stable atmosphere on 23 October 1997 separated air masses containing flight corridors above 10 km from air masses below 10 km that were not affected by air traffic.
Temperature profiler data determined a height of the tro- popause that was above DC-8 flight levels by at least 1 km throughout the flight, thereby eliminating stratospheric intrusions. 
Furthermore, air mass back trajectories established the absence of long range transport of pollutants from the North American con- tinent.
Thus, SONEX Flight No. 7 across commercial airline flight corridors on that day provided an opportunity to determine aerosol characteristics in both aircraft-affected and non-affected air masses in the upper troposphere. Our results document that subsonic aircraft are a source of detectable sulfuric acid aerosol. Even though the particles are too small to measurably affect sur- face area and volume densities, this finding is an affirmative an- swer to one of the key questions addressed by SONEX: Can air- craft corridors be detected? 

Full article:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 26, NO. 15, PAGES 2399-2402, AUGUST 1, 1999
Effects of aircraft on aerosol abundance in the upper troposphere 
G.V.Ferry et al.


[4] An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols
Philip J Rasch1*, Simone Tilmes1, Richard P Turco2, Alan Robock3, Luke Oman4, Chih-Chieh (Jack) Chen1, Georgiy L Stenchikov3 and Rolando R Garcia1

(iv) Aerosol injection in aircraft jet exhaust
The effects of high-altitude aircraft on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere have been extensively studied, beginning with the supersonic transport programmes of the 1970s and extending to recent subsonic aircraft impact assessments (under various names) in the USA and Europe (e.g. NASA-AEAP 1997). These projects have characterized aircraft emissions and jet plume dynamics, and developed corresponding models to treat the various chemical, microphysical and dynamical processes.

Enhancing aircraft fuel with added sulphur compounds (H2S, Sn) could increase the particle mass in a jet wake. It is well established that ultrafine sulphate particles are generated copiously in jet exhaust streams during flight (e.g. Fahey et al. 1995). The particles appear to be nucleated by sulphuric acid on ions (hereafter chemiions, e.g. Yu & Turco (1997, 1998b)) formed in the combustion process of jet engines by radical reactions. Sulphuric acid is a by-product of sulphur residues in the fuel (typically less than 1% sulphur by weight); most of this fuel sulphur is emitted as SO2. The fraction emitted as H2SO4 decreases as the fuel sulphur content increases, and accounts for roughly 2 per cent of the total sulphur as the fuel sulphur content approaches approximately 1 per cent.

The concentrations of chemiions in jet emissions are strongly limited by ion–ion recombination along the engine train to approximately 1×109 cm−3 at the exit plane (e.g. Arnold et al. 2000). Considering a variety of direct measurements of particles in jet wakes, Kärcher et al. (2000) showed that chemiion nucleation is consistent with the observed relative constancy of the ultrafine volatile (non-soot) particle emission factor, Ep∼1–2×1017 kg−1fuel (where it should be noted that the concentrations of soot particles are typically less than 1 per cent of the total number of particles emitted). Ep is quite insensitive to the fuel sulphur content, a fact that is also consistent with a chemiion nucleation source. While vapour trails formed in jet wakes can significantly modify the injected particle properties (e.g. Yu & Turco 1998a), condensation trails are extremely rare under normally dry stratospheric conditions.

Full article:
An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aeroso
Philip J Rasch1*, Simone Tilmes1, Richard P Turco2, Alan Robock3, Luke Oman4, Chih-Chieh (Jack) Chen1, Georgiy L Stenchikov3 and Rolando R Garcia1

Also in:
Chapter 12
Geo-Engineering Climate Change: Environmental Necessity or Pandora's Box?
by Brian Launder (Editor), J. Michael T. Thompson

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Draft: Geoengineering and Moral Schizophrenia: What’s the Question? Paper By Stephen M. Gardiner and Ben Rabinowitz

Geoengineering and Moral Schizophrenia: 
What’s the Question?
Stephen M. Gardiner
Professor of Philosophy and
Ben Rabinowitz Endowed Professor of the Human Dimensions of the Environment
University of Washington, Seattle
Full chapter here:

http://www.academia.edu/2158547/Geoengineering_and_Moral_Schizophrenia_Whats_the_Question
http://www.phil.washington.edu/pov/documents/Gardiner__Schizophrenia_DRAFT_Web.pdf

DRAFT
[Final version forthcoming in William Burns and Andrew Strauss, eds.
Climate Change Geoengineering: Legal, Political and Philosophical Perspectives. Cambridge.]

“Not to be moved by what one values – what one believes good, nice, right, beautiful, and
so on – bespeaks a malady of the spirit.”
Michael Stocker

Humanity stands on a precipice. Mainstream science tells us that climate change is
real, accelerating, and might credibly result in global catastrophe. For decades, it has
warned that greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced (mitigation) and that we should
prepare for those impacts that are no longer avoidable (adaptation). Yet global emissions of
the main culprit, carbon dioxide, continue to grow at a startling rate, and very little action
has been taken to prepare.
In the face of this escalating threat, a previously marginalized proposal has reemerged and become mainstream. 
Geoengineering – roughly “the intentional manipulation
of planetary systems at a global scale”2 – is now being seriously discussed. Especially
prominent are approaches that might provide a quick fix to hold off an imminent climate
catastrophe. Currently, the leading proposal is that humanity try to offset the heating
effects of increases in greenhouse gases by injecting sulfates into the stratosphere, as a
way of reducing incoming solar radiation (i.e., “planetary sunblock”). Although most believe
this form of “solar radiation management” to be “risky”, and probably also “unsustainable”3
over the long term, respected researchers and institutions are urging national governments
to create research programs, and begin envisioning mechanisms of governance. Given the
looming threat of catastrophe, we are told, geoengineering simply must be taken seriously.4
At first glance, such arguments, and the emergency framing more generally, appear
straightforward, irresistible and overtly ethical. Clearly, global environmental catastrophe
would be very bad for many things we value. If so, don’t we have a strong moral obligation
to do “whatever it takes” to prevent it, including encouraging the would-be geoengineers?
In the face of such a threat, what ethical objections could possibly be strong enough to rule
out geoengineering?
This chapter considers whether, in context, these are the most important questions
to be asking. Its central claim will be that they are not. Although the issue of whether to
pursue geoengineering as such is relevant, focusing on it obscures much of what is at stake
morally-speaking, and in ways that threaten to trivialize our understanding of our
predicament. One way to illustrate this is by showing how the currently dominant framing
of the geoengineering debate in terms of “whatever it takes”-style emergency arguments is
often ethically short-sighted and morally schizophrenic.5
It is ethically short-sighted (in the sense of “missing the bigger picture”) in so far as it arbitrarily 
marginalizes central moral issues such as how we got into this predicament, and why we are 
not seriously pursuing better ways out. It is also frequently morally schizophrenic 
(in the sense of being “a state characterized by the coexistence of contradictory or incompatible 
elements”6) since it tends to bring on a form of creative myopia: it requires us to emphasize and 
endorse strong
ethical concerns that we are otherwise unwilling to act on, and which would, if earnestly and
coherently embraced, lead us to approach both climate policy in general and geoengineering
in particular in very different ways. In short, the worry is that, even if ethically serious
people have reason to support (some forms of) geoengineering research and perhaps even
deployment in the abstract, their approach would look very different from anything currently
under consideration, let alone actually likely to transpire.
This diagnosis has three important implications. First, it threatens to undermine the
superficial appeal of the emergency arguments, and to render them seriously misleading in
practice. Second, it has explanatory value: it seems likely many people’s ethical unease
about the current push towards geoengineering rest in part on concerns about ethical 
shortsightedness and moral schizophrenia. Third, importantly, it suggests that not all ethical
resistance to geoengineering relies on potentially controversial theses about its moral
status. For example, those troubled by the geoengineering turn in climate policy need not
believe geoengineering as such to be inherently bad, nor a violation of the appropriate
relationship of humanity to the rest of the natural world, nor even ultimately morally
impermissible.7 Instead, some ethical resistance can involve far narrower fears about the
context within which geoengineering is currently being pursued, and how this is likely to
evolve in the foreseeable future.
Before proceeding, some clarifications may be helpful. First, the target of most of
the chapter is our collective reasoning and behavior, where the most salient collectives are
humanity as such, the dominant nations, and especially the current generation of the
world’s affluent, who wield most of the political power, and to whom most arguments for
engaging in geoengineering are in practice ultimately addressed. One consequence of this
is that the chapter is not directly concerned with the issue of whether and how ethical
responsibility is transmitted from collectives to individuals. Though I am inclined to think
that individuals are normally accountable to some extent for what they do together, the
issue is complex and I will neither argue for that view here, nor sketch its implications for
geoengineering.8
Second, when discussing collectives, my focus is on improving the quality of public
argument, rather than prosecuting claims of ethical responsibility. In particular, I am not
concerned with questions of who should be accused of moral schizophrenia, and how they
should be held accountable. Instead, my interest is in how we (collectively) should best
think and talk about the challenge that confronts us in a setting where the integrity of public
discussion is itself at risk.
Third, in focusing on undifferentiated collectives such as humanity as such and the
current generation, I am not claiming that such collectives are currently unified in
appropriate structures of agency (e.g., by competent institutions). Instead, I assume only
that there is a sense in which they should be so unified, and that public argument often
proceeds on this assumption.
Nevertheless, fourth, I also do not assume that thinking about collectives is the only
or most central way in which geoengineering (or climate policy more generally) should be
understood from the ethical point of view. Indeed, (as we shall see in section 1) elsewhere
I have argued that one of the key features of climate change and similar problems is the
way in which they complicate and potentially undermine effective collective agency. My
remarks should thus be seen as picking out only one salient dimension of our ethical
problem (and so in the context of that overall picture, rather than in competition with it).
The chapter proceeds as follows. Section 1 considers the general ethical context in
which the push towards geoengineering emerges, and clarifies the problem of ethical shortsightedness. 
Section 2 identifies the problem of moral schizophrenia, introduces a
provocative hypothetical case, and suggests that it is analogous to geoengineering. Section
3 briefly sketches some implications of the analysis. Section 4 clarifies the analogy by
responding to three basic objections. Section 5 summarizes the main claims of the chapter.





Climate Change Geoengineering Philosophical Perspectives, Legal Issues, and Governance Frameworks  EDITORS: Wil C. G. Burns, The Johns Hopkins University Andrew L. Strauss, Widener University School of Law, Delaware 
PUBLISHED: July 2013 FORMAT: Hardback ISBN: 9781107023932
http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/law/environmental-law/climate-change-geoengineering-philosophical-perspectives-legal-issues-and-governance-frameworks

Tropezando con mi propia Huella de Carbono


Recientemente tuvimos que actualizar nuestra casa de 68 años en la Florida Central, el trabajo incluyo: nuevas ventanas de vidrio Low-E, nuevo aislamiento térmico en el ático y un nuevo sistema de aire acondicionado y conductos.


 Como resultado en los últimos 6 meses tuvimos un 48% de reducción en el consumo eléctrico en comparación con los mismos períodos en años anteriores.

El manejo automovilistico lo hemos reducido del promedio de 12,000 millas al año a unas 6,000 millas/a (después de los cálculos dividí ese resultado a la mitad ya que mi esposa y yo compartimos un solo vehículo)

Utilizando algunas calculadoras gratuitas de la Huella de Carbono basadas en  la web, como la de la EPA, estimé que mi huella de carbono individual por casa y vehículo es de aproximadamente 3 1/4 toneladas de CO2 / año.  Mi huella de Carbono por viajes aéreos para este año es  5,823 lbs. de CO2 o sea, un poco menos de 3 toneladas.
  
Así que mi Huella de Carbono proyectada para este año, está cerca de las 6 toneladas de CO2.


Espero no tener que hacer viajes aereos en el futuro cercano ya que esto por si solo casi dobló mi Huella de Carbono, cosa que resulto muy contraproducente.


Calculadora de Huella de Carbono
http://calculator.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx?lang=es

¿Qué es la Huella de Carbono?
¿Qué es la huella ecológica?
http://www.patagonianatural.org/que-es-la-huella-de-carbono.html

Emisiones de CO2 (toneladas métricas per cápita)
Centro de Análisis de Información sobre Dióxido de Carbono, División de Ciencias Ambientales del Laboratorio Nacional de Oak Ridge (Tennessee, Estados Unidos).
Fuentes Indicadores del desarrollo mundial
http://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC

Imagen de: 

ECO PRESERVATION SOCIETY
The Human Footprint from National Geographic.


Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Shooting myself in the carbon footprint

By Oscar A. Escobar
Gt - FL USA

Update 7/31/2013

Carbon footprint or cfp:

Recently we had to update our 68 year old house in Central Florida, the work included: new low-E glass windows, attic-insulation and a new AC system. Over the last 6 months we had a 48% reduction in our electric consumption compared to the same periods in previous years. Our driving has been reduced from the average 12,000 miles a year to about 6,000 miles/y  (after the calculations I divided this result in half since my wife and I share one vehicle)

Using  a few of the free web based carbon footprint calculators like the one from the EPA, I estimated my individual home and vehicle cfp to be about 3 1/4 tones of CO2 per year.

My air travel cfp for this year is 5,823 lbs of CO2 or slightly less than 3 tones of CO2. 

So my projected carbon footprint, is about 6 tones of CO2 for this year. Hopefully I won't do much flying in the near future since that alone nearly doubled my cfp, which was kind of self defeating.



Last Update Oct 10, 2014

Other interesting articles:


 The Meteorologist’s Meltdown: Eric Holthaus on Deciding to Quit Flyingquits flying
Oct, 1, 2013
 http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/10/01/the-meteorologist-s-meltdown-eric-holthaus-on-deciding-to-quit-flying.html


Nov. 10, 2013

Who bears the cost of airline emissions?

Aviation is today responsible for some 2% of the planet’s man-made CO2 emissions. But when the effects of nitrogen oxide emissions, water vapour, soot and sulphates, contrails and enhanced cirrus cloud formations are also factored in, the best scientific estimates put aviation’s overall contribution to global warming at 4.9%.

The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has forecast that CO2 emissions from international aviation (about 60% of total aviation emissions) will grow from approximately 400 million tonnes in 2010 to 650 million tonnes by 2020. Unchecked, there may be a 274% increase in the fuel used by airlines by 2050, measured against 2006 levels.

Put plainly, the aviation industry bears a share of responsibility for the accelerated drought-flood cycle that climate change will bring to countries such as India.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/comment/columnsothers/who-bears-the-cost-of-airline-emissions/article1-1147628.aspx


Aug. 9, 2013


The climate impact of travel behavior: A German case study with illustrative mitigation options
Borgar Aamaasa, Corresponding author contact information, E-mail the corresponding author, Jens Borken-Kleefeldb, Glen P. Petersa
a Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), PB 1129 Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway

b IIASA – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract

Global greenhouse gas mitigation should include the growing share of emissions from transportation. To help understand the mitigation potential of changing travel behavior requires disaggregating the climate impacts of transportation by transport mode, distance, and travel behavior. Here we use disaggregated data on travel behavior to calculate the climate impact of Germans traveling nationally and internationally in 2008 and develop some illustrative mitigation options. We include all relevant long-lived greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers and use global temperature change for 50 years of sustained emissions as the emission metric. The total climate impact is determined almost entirely by car (∼46%) and air travel (∼45%), with smaller contributions from public transportation. The climate impact from the highest income group is 250% larger than from the lowest income group. However, the middle classes account for more than two thirds of the total impact. The relatively few trips beyond 100 km contribute more than half of the total impact because of the trip distance and use of aircraft. Individual behavioral changes, like shifting transport modes or reducing distance and frequency, can lead to useful emission reductions. However, a comprehensive package of mitigation options is necessary for deep and sustained emission reductions.

Some links:

List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions per capita
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita

EPA Household Carbon Footprint Calculator

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/ind-calculator.html 

CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)

Report: Carbon markets offer 'cheap' aviation emissions cuts
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2285663/report-carbon-markets-offer-cheap-aviation-emissions-cuts


Image added 9/6/2013 from: 

ECO PRESERVATION SOCIETY
The Human Footprint from National Geographic.


Interesting articles added October 2, 2013

One meteorologist explains why he won’t fly again
SEP 30, 2013 BY LINDSAY ABRAMS

http://www.salon.com/2013/09/30/one_meteorologist_explains_why_he_wont_fly_again/


THE NEXT THING WE NEED TO DO ABOUT CARBON
OCTOBER 2, 2013 BY LAWRENCE KRAUSS 


http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/10/the-next-thing-we-need-to-do-about-carbon.html

Saturday, July 27, 2013

¿Están los gobiernos pensando en la geoingeniería para adaptarse al cambio climático?


Are Governments Thinking of Geoengineering Earth to Adjust to Climate Change?
by lenrosen4,  July 27, 2013 
(Traduccion libre)

Doug Saunders en la edición de hoy del Globe and Mail ha escrito "la idea de proyectos-planetarios de geoingeniería para revertir el cambio climático... recientemente ha ganado mucha más credibilidad en ambos círculos principales de la ciencia y la política." Él llega a hablar de un gran avance, la convocación de un panel destacado constado de científicos del Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones de Estados Unidos (NRC  por sus siglas en inglés), NASA, Sondeo Geológico U.S. (USGS) y la Administración Nacional Oceánica y Atmosférica (NOAA), para evaluar posibles proyectos de geoingeniería.

Si estos son proyectos destinados a mitigar el impacto del cambio climático o revertir  la cantidad de carbono destinado a la atmósfera, las ideas propuestas ya han demostrado estar cortas de ciencia. Es abordar el problema del calentamiento global con el enfoque de un “toro en una cristalería”. El panel investigara la idea de poner más productos químicos en la atmósfera para hacerla más reflexiva y que calor solar no sea atrapado tanto por el metano y el CO2 que estamos emitiendo actualmente debido a la industria, el transporte y creación de energía. Otra es sembrar el océano con hierro para aumentar la capacidad del agua para absorber el CO2. Y el tercero es el tratamiento de suelos con grandes cantidades de carbón o biochar para atrapar CO2. Y el tercero es el tratamiento de suelos con grandes cantidades de carbón o biochar para atrapar CO2. Los trillones de dólares que al final gastaremos en todas estas tecnologías de remediación representa un defecto humano distintivo. En lugar de estrategias preventivas, estos destacados científicos preferirían tratar con las consecuencias “después de los hechos” del aumento de las temperaturas atmosféricas y conducir un experimento de geoingeniería de todo el planeta.

No por señalar uno de los defectos evidentes en este panel destacado, pero dónde está la representación del resto del planeta? Todas las organizaciones que se reunieron en la discusión de este grupo eran estadounidenses. Un recurso global no es algo que una nación puede emprender sin involucrar al resto del planeta.

Y ¿por qué deberían las naciones hablar para toda la humanidad cuando se discute el tema del cambio climático? Desde el protocolo de Kioto han demostrado  ser lamentablemente incapaces de desarrollar estrategias colectivas para el cambio climático. En su lugar tenemos una oleada de activistas de la red social ambiental formando movimientos de guerrilla para revertir el cambio climático inducido por los humanos. Y de la misma forma municipios pequeños y grandes se han convertido en activistas en la lucha para revertir el calentamiento global. Mientras tanto los gobiernos nacionales más preocupados con el crecimiento del PIB fallan al no ver que la remediación del carbono representa una gran oportunidad económica. Hace unos días escribí sobre los primeros cuatro años del impuesto sobre el carbono en la provincia de British Columbia, y como el resultado final ha sido una reducción en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero sin un impacto negativo en el crecimiento económico.

Pero no,  mejor deberíamos realizar un experimento en todo el planeta sembrando los océanos con hierro (que por cierto recientemente hemos descubierto que no funciona), o poner más productos químicos reflexivos en la atmósfera sin pensar en los impactos negativos de los químicos en la biología del planeta, o quemar biomasa para crear biochar y la carga de calor de la quema y su impacto en la atmósfera.


Hoy nuestros modelos climáticos son tan sofisticados como las súper computadoras que los ejecutan. Tenemos más de un siglo y medio de datos meteorológicos recogidos. Pero en verdad todavía no sabemos lo suficiente como para pronosticar con precisión lo que vamos a experimentar en las próximas décadas a medida que los niveles de CO2 suben lentamente por arriba de las 400 partes por millón hasta llegar a las 450 a mediados de siglo. Todo lo que sabemos es que tanto la atmósfera como el océano son más cálidos que lo eue han sido en la historia grabada y que las dos últimas décadas han visto un aumento alarmante en los datos de temperatura. La subida se correlaciona estrechamente con el aumento de CO2. Entonces la respuesta es muy simple. Dejar de crear más CO2. Desplazarse rápidamente hacia una huella menor de carbono. Crear conciencia junto con acción introduciendo políticas que nos alejen de la quema de carbono tan rápidamente como sea posible. Y hacerlo con la misma dedicación que hemos demostrado en librar guerras.

¿El lago en el Polo Norte, que tan malo es?

Recientemente salió un artículo[1] referente a unas fotos sobre el nivel de derretimiento del hielo marino en el Polo Norte. Y aunque es un tema muy crítico, hay que verlo desde la perspectiva propia . Así nos lo dice Andrew Fredman de Climate Central en su artículo titulado en inglés:

The Lake at the North Pole, How Bad Is It?

¿El lago en el Polo Norte, que tan malo es?
Por Andrew Freedman
 Climate Central 26 de Julio, 2013

(Traduccion libre) 

Las fotos son dramáticas — una cámara en el Observatorio ambiental del Polo Norte, localizada en medio de lo que parece ser un lago o mar abierto, en la cima de la temporada de mayor deshielo marino. Montado contra el telón de fondo de la estrepitosa caída en la capa de hielo marino en las últimas décadas, debido en gran parte al calentamiento global,  parecería ser otra alarma más seña de cambio climático en el Ártico.


Imagen desde una de las webcams del Observatorio Ambiental del Polo Norte, tomada el Jueves, Julio 25.
Crédito: NSF's North Pole Environmental Observatory.

Estas imágenes han atraído la atención de los medios, como esta entrada  del Atlantic Wire y este reporte del Daily Mail, que tratan las imágenes como posibles señales de una intensificación del deshielo Ártico. 
Pero antes de concluir que el cambio climático del Ártico ha entrado en una fase todavía más ominosa, es importante examinar el contexto detrás de estas imágenes. 

En primer lugar, las cámaras en cuestión, que están unidas a los instrumentos que los científicos han depositado sobre el hielo marino al inicio de cada primavera desde el 2002, pueden tener "Polo Norte" en su nombre, pero ya no se encuentran en el Polo Norte. De hecho, como este mapa siguiente muestra, han derivado bien hacia el sur del Polo Norte, ya que están puestas sobre témpanos de hielo que se mueven con las corrientes oceánicas. Actualmente, la cámara anegada está cerca del meridiano de Greenwich, a 85 grados latitud norte.

Annotated mapa muestra la ubicación del Polo Norte y la ubicación de las boyas con las webcams. Crédito: Observatorio ambiental de NSF Polo Norte.

"Se ha movido lejos de la región del Polo Norte y eventualmente saldrá del estrecho de Fram," dijo en una entrevista Mark Serreze, director del Centro Nacional de Datos de Nieve y Hielo (NSIDC por sus siglas en inglés) en Boulder, Colorado,. El Estrecho de Fram queda entre Groenlandia y Canadá y es una de las principales rutas de desagüe de hilo marino del Océano Ártico. 

La segunda cosa a tener en cuenta es que el derretimiento del hielo marino en o cerca del Polo Norte en realidad no es un acontecimiento raro. Observaciones de las webcams que se remontan al 2002 y de imágenes satelitales y submarinos de propulsión nuclear que han explorado la cubierta de hielo desde la época de la guerra fría que datan de varias décadas, muestra que el hielo marino alrededor del Polo Norte ha formado, varias veces en el pasado, lagunas de derretimiento y hasta áreas de aguas abiertas.

Lo que la webcam presenta como lo que parece ser agua abierta es pobremente  "una gran laguna de derretimiento" que se ha formado sobre la cubierta de hielo del mar, dijo Serreze. Esta laguna de derretimiento comenzó a formarse alrededor de 10 de Julio y esta probablemente cerca de su máxima profundidad y extensión. La ocurrencia de una laguna de derretimiento en o cerca del Polo Norte no es  “muy raro", dijo Serreze y es incluso menos raro en una ubicación más meridional como dónde está la cámara ahora.
 
"Toda la cubierta de hielo del mar Ártico muestra derretimiento durante el verano, incluso en el Polo Norte", dijo, hablando de una temporada típica de derretimiento. 
Serreze dijo que generalmente es posible atravesar estas lagunas caminando con vadeadores hasta la cintura, en lugar de tener que nadar, ya que hay hielo debajo del agua derretida.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lqCFFLbLDw
Video de imágenes tomadas por la webcam del Observatorio ambiental del Polo Norte durante el 2013  temporada de derretimiento. (La laguna comienza a aparecer en 1:25).

Aunque James Overland, investigador de la Administración Nacional del Océano y Atmosfera (NOAA por sus siglas en inglés), declaro en un correo electrónico a  Climate Central  que la laguna de derretimiento parece inusualmente grande en comparación con lo que se observa típicamente en una temporada de deshielo, "Tenemos extensas lagunas de derretimiento cada año, pero no recuerdo un lago tan extenso en años anteriores. "El lago es más un producto de cómo se configuró el hielo a principios de año, dijo.

La capa de hielo Ártico se ha ido encogiendo y adelgazando rápidamente desde el comienzo de las observaciones por satélite en 1979. El año pasado, el volumen y extensión del hielo del mar cayó a un mínimo histórico. Cuando la temporada de deshielo finalmente terminó a finales de septiembre, el océano Ártico logró quedarse con menos de la mitad de la extensión del hielo marino promedio visto durante el período 1979-a-2000.
 
Los últimos seis años han tenido los seis grados menores de hielo marino desde 1979, indicando que el hielo no se ha recuperado desde el récord bajo  anterior en el 2007.  Los investigadores atribuyen esto a la pérdida de hielo multianual más grueso, que ha sido sustituido por hielo más delgado que se forma en el otoño y se derrite en la primavera y el verano.

Serreze dijo que la delgadez de la capa de hielo lo ha hecho mucho más susceptible a los patrones climáticos que promueven el transporte de hielo y su derretimiento. Hasta ahora en este verano, la extensión del hielo del mar se ha mantenido por encima del 2012, con un ritmo lento de derretimiento en Junio que fue seguido por un derritiendo mucho más rápido durante las tres primeras tres semanas de Julio después de que los patrones del clima se volvieron más favorables para el derretimiento, dijo Serreze. 

"Estaría muy sorprendido si no estuviéramos" muy por debajo de la media llegado Septiembre, dijo Serreze, pero la perspectiva de establecer otro récord bajo "depende de los caprichos del clima, solo que eso no lo podemos predecir."

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[1] El Polo Norte se deshiela transformándose en un lago
El inusual fenómeno fue captado por una cámara del Observatorio norteamericano Medioambiental del Polo Norte.
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