Even though the rate of the Arctic melt continues to 'surprise' scientists,[1] it turns
out that the rate of global warming slowed down as "OVER the
past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while
greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar."; so says an article
titled “A sensitive matter” on The Economist. [2]
But the
slowdown it’s not due to cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols (see excerpt), the premise on which solar radiation management
geoengineers base their claims, in fact these may in some cases actually exacerbate
warming. [3]
Perhaps the
deep ocean, below 700 m, has been storing more heat, [4] the article goes on to
wonder.
Many of the
“uncertainties” about climate and its forcings are explored here, and in doing
so strengthening again one certainty: solar radiation management geoengineering is
more dangerous and expensive than previously thought.
Excerpt:
“Begin with aerosols, such as those from
sulphates. These stop the atmosphere from warming by reflecting sunlight. Some
heat it, too. But on balance aerosols offset the warming impact of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Most climate models reckon that aerosols
cool the atmosphere by about 0.3-0.5°C. If that underestimated aerosols’
effects, perhaps it might explain the lack of recent warming.
Yet it does
not. In fact, it may actually be an overestimate. Over the past few years,
measurements of aerosols have improved enormously. Detailed data from
satellites and balloons suggest their cooling effect is lower (and their
warming greater, where that occurs). The leaked assessment from the IPCC (which
is still subject to review and revision) suggested that aerosols’ estimated
radiative “forcing”—their warming or cooling effect—had changed from minus 1.2
watts per square metre of the Earth’s surface in the 2007 assessment to minus
0.7W/m ² now: ie, less cooling.
One of the
commonest and most important aerosols is soot (also known as black carbon).
This warms the atmosphere because it absorbs sunlight, as black things do. The
most detailed study of soot was published in January and also found more net
warming than had previously been thought. It reckoned black carbon had a direct
warming effect of around 1.1W/m ². Though indirect effects offset some of this,
the effect is still greater than an earlier estimate by the United Nations
Environment Programme of 0.3-0.6W/m ²”
References:
[1] Antarctic
Warming Rate Surprises Scientists: Today's Pic
[2] A
sensitive matter
The climate
may be heating up less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions than was once
thought. But that does not mean the problem is going away
Mar 30th
2013 |The Economist
[3] July
2012 Greenland melt extent enhanced by low-level liquid clouds
R.
Bennartz, M. D. Shupe, D. D. Turner, V. P. Walden, K. Steffen, C. J. Cox, M. S.
Kulie, N. B. Miller & C. Pettersen
[4] Distinctive
climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content†
Magdalena
A. Balmaseda1,*, Kevin E. Trenberth2, Erland Källén1
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50382/abstract
Other links (updated 4/11/2013):
How the economist got it wrong
Other links (updated 4/11/2013):
How the economist got it wrong
DANA
NUCCITELLI AND MICHAEL E MANN
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